Dear members,
We would like to invite you and your colleagues to the January London Section evening meeting for presentations by a Distinguished Lecturer on Decision Making and Uncertainty, and by a Distinguished Lecturer on Global Warming.
The event will be at Imperial College, Royal School of Mines, Prince Consort Road, London, SW7 2BP.
The Royal School of Mines is about 15 minutes walk from South Kensington tube station via Exhibition Road and Prince Consort Road. ??Please read more about the agenda, the talk content, and the booking information below.
Regards
Tim Lines
SPE London Section – Programme Chairman
Email: tim.lines@oilfieldinternational.com
Agenda:
Time: 5.00-6.30 pm
Talk 1:Fooled by Randomness: Improving Decision Making with Limited Data.
Jim Gouveia, Distinguished Lecturer, 2016-17 and Partner, Rose & Associates.
6.30-7.15 pm DRINKS AND NETWORKING BUFFET
Time: 7.15-8.45 pm
Talk 2: Global Climate Change Wars and Fossil Energy; Current and Future Realities.
George Stosur, Distinguished Lecturer, Consultant, formerly U.S. Dept. of Energy
Venue: The event will be held at the Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London.
Booking via Eventbrite: All booking must be paid in advance and online please.
Email: katespe@aol.com
Cost: 34 for SPE/PESGB/EI members, 44 non-members, 19 unemployed members.
Non-refundable 5 for students booking by Friday, 25 January (19 after).
All tickets have an additional Eventbrite fee.
BEFORE DINNER
5.00 pm 6.30 pm. Fooled by Randomness: Improving Decision Making with Limited Data.
Jim Gouveia, Distinguished Lecturer, 2016-17 and Partner, Rose & Associates.
Professionals routinely face the challenge of making informed decisions with limited data sets. Our exploitation of Unconventional resource plays has exacerbated this issue. We commonly refer to these resource plays as statistical plays, as large programs have provided repeatable year over year results. Competitive pressures and the desire to get to the right answer as soon as possible has driven the observed decision-making based on limited data sets. In an environment where horizontal well costs can exceed $10 MM and programs hundreds of millions of dollars, decisions based on limited wells have become our industrys money pits. Development decisions are often made without due consideration for the representativeness of the data. Similarly, we frequently test new technologies with limited samples with the expectation that a simple arithmetic comparison of the average results can validate or refute their further application.
This talk presents the theory and utilization of aggregation curves as a pragmatic graphical approach to determining the uncertainty in the sampled mean relative to the desired average program outcome. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on the use of sequential aggregation plots as a graphical approach to validating the representativeness of our forecasted results versus based on limited actual results.
James Gouveia is a Professional Engineer with a diverse technical, business and operations background. He has worked in a variety of technical and managerial assignments in exploration, reservoir engineering, strategic and business process planning, portfolio and risk management. From 1996 to 1999, Mr. Gouveia was Director of Risk Management for the Amoco Energy Group of North America. In this role he was accountable for assurance of consistent project evaluation of major capital projects. With BP, he was an Assurance champion and Asset manager. Jim has co-authored and presented papers, most recently as a contributing author to the SPEEs 2011 Monograph 3, and SPE 175527 & 175888 & 121525. Mr. Gouveia is a member of APEGA, SPE, SPEE and AAPG. Mr. Gouveia is a partner in Rose & Associates LLP.
AFTER DINNER ?
7.15 pm 8.45 pm. Global Climate Change Wars and Fossil Energy; Current and Future Realities. ?George Stosur, Distinguished Lecturer, Consultant, formerly U.S. Dept. of Energy.
Global climate change remains top of the agenda for lively discussion on TV documentaries, frightening newspaper headlines, science magazines and foreign policy journals.
The sudden abundance of relatively clean and inexpensive shale oil and gas is profoundly changing global energy markets. Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, the fact remains that fossil fuels will continue to dominate world energy consumption for decades to come. Therefore, fossil fuel consumption will continue to produce greenhouse gas emissions that are linked to global warming. Public and political pressure, however, is to curtail the use of oil and gas hydrocarbons or find solution for permanent disposal of heat trapping gases. This is no longer an option for the future; it is a political necessity.
Carbon dioxide sequestration and storage presents a huge challenge for research and development. Massive projects will eventually be required, leading to many opportunities, new businesses and specialized services. Most of these activities will fall on the shoulders of petroleum engineers and geologists.
This presentation provides a view on global climate change issues, starting with causes and effects, the positions of believers and sceptics and the, often contradictory arguments of scientists and policy makers, with the likely political consequences for the petroleum industry.
George Stosur managed oil and gas R&D programs at the U.S. Department of Energy in Washington, D.C. for 22 years. He was responsible for DOE-sponsored research at universities, National Laboratories and joint R&D projects with several countries. Other experience includes Chevron and Shell Oil R&D in EOR, heavy oil, and the first trial of using nuclear explosive to fracture ultra-low permeability formations. He served as an SPE Section Director, SPE Distinguished Lecturer and guest speaker for several cruise lines. Authored 86 papers and contributed to a five-volume encyclopaedia on hydrocarbons. He holds two M.S. degrees and a Ph.D. in petroleum engineering.